Stable News is Lumx’s weekly curation dedicated to tracking the most important developments in stablecoins, digital infrastructure, and the future of global payments.
Still building on the expectations for 2026 explored in the previous edition, this week helps turn projections into more concrete signals. Across large players’ strategies, shifts in market structure, and usage data at scale, the backdrop converges on a single point: less dependence on classic cycles and greater pressure for infrastructure capable of operating under institutional standards.
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Investors redraw the crypto playbook for 2026 beyond the halving
After a 2025 marked by volatility and returns below the expectations of part of the market, analysts are beginning to reassess how crypto cycles are interpreted. While Bitcoin partially followed its historical post-halving behavior, there was no consistent spillover effect into altcoins, raising questions about the validity of traditional models.
In this context, the view that institutional capital is changing market dynamics is gaining traction. With longer investment horizons and more constrained mandates, these investors tend to prioritize assets and sectors with structural relevance over purely cyclical narratives. Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized assets emerge as pillars of this next phase.
The prevailing expectation is that 2026 will mark a transition: less focus on short-term narratives and greater attention to infrastructure layers capable of supporting real adoption.
Why this matters:
✅ The market begins to question the centrality of the four-year cycle
✅ Institutional capital favors structural, long-term themes
✅ Stablecoins and tokenization are increasingly seen as strategic infrastructure
Coinbase bets on stablecoins and payments as its growth axis for 2026
Brian Armstrong stated that Coinbase intends to accelerate its efforts in stablecoins, payments, and on-chain adoption throughout 2026. The stated ambition is to position the company as one of the world’s leading financial apps, expanding far beyond trading.
The strategy includes investments in automation, product evolution, and expansion of the Base ecosystem, the company’s layer-2. The goal is to reduce friction for end users and integrate stablecoins and tokenization into broader financial flows, such as delivery-versus-payment and institutional settlement.
While the targets are considered ambitious in the short term, analysts acknowledge that Coinbase occupies a central position as a regulated on-ramp, with strong capabilities in infrastructure, custody, and integration with the traditional financial system.
Why this matters:
✅ Large platforms begin treating stablecoins as a core business
✅ Competition shifts from trading to payments and infrastructure
✅ Adoption depends less on hype and more on UX and regulated integration
2026 is likely to redefine crypto market structure
Experts point out that 2026 may be the year when crypto markets are forced to demonstrate structural resilience. The liquidation episode of October 2025, when billions of dollars were wiped out within hours, exposed fragilities that institutional capital is unlikely to tolerate.
With MiCA implementation in Europe, regulatory progress in Asia, and expectations of greater clarity in the United States, the regulatory focus is shifting from basic licensing to issues such as governance, risk management, and market structure.
The trend points toward liquidity concentration in fewer venues, with higher standards of execution, depth, and operational control. The central question shifts from “who can operate” to “who can operate at scale and under stress.”
Why this matters:
✅ Regulation increasingly demands institutional-grade infrastructure
✅ Liquidity is likely to concentrate on fewer platforms
✅ Operational resilience becomes a decisive survival factor
Spending on Visa crypto cards grows more than 500% in 2025
Data from Dune Analytics shows that net spending on crypto cards issued in partnership with Visa grew 525% in 2025, rising from US$14.6 million to over US$91 million. Projects tied to DeFi and payments led this growth, with strong integration of stablecoins.
The figures indicate that while the market debates cycles and regulation, users are already using crypto and stablecoins for everyday consumption. For Visa, the growth reinforces its decision to invest in infrastructure, partnerships, and advisory services focused on stablecoins.
These cards function as an abstraction layer: users pay in local currency, while settlement occurs over crypto rails — often invisibly.
Why this matters:
✅ Stablecoins reach retail users without friction
✅ Hybrid infrastructure accelerates adoption without disruption
✅ Real payments validate use beyond trading
Ethereum settles US$8 trillion in stablecoins and reinforces its role as a global rail
Ethereum processed more than US$8 trillion in stablecoin transfers in the fourth quarter of 2025, nearly double the volume recorded in the second quarter. The growth was accompanied by record levels of active addresses and daily transactions.
Beyond leading stablecoin settlement, Ethereum remains the primary layer for real-world asset tokenization, concentrating the majority of on-chain value in this segment. Despite competition from other networks, the combination of liquidity, security, and institutional compatibility sustains its dominant position.
The data reinforces the view that stablecoins already operate as a global on-chain payment system, regardless of future integrations with traditional networks.
Why this matters:
✅ Stablecoins already operate at scale comparable to traditional systems
✅ Ethereum consolidates its role as the primary institutional settlement rail
✅ Infrastructure is in place ahead of full-scale adoption
The combined signals from this week reinforce a clear message: 2026 will not be defined by a new narrative cycle, but by the ecosystem’s ability to operate with depth, resilience, and institutional integration.
Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized assets remain at the center of the conversation — not as speculative bets, but as components of an infrastructure that is increasingly being required, not merely tested.
See you next week.
