Stable News is Lumx’s weekly curation dedicated to tracking the most important developments in stablecoins, digital infrastructure, and the future of global payments.
This week brings early signals of the themes likely to shape the beginning of the year. The discussion moves away from experimentation and toward projected scale, institutional positioning, fine-grained regulatory design, and structural questions about how the stablecoin market can be sustained over the long term.
Reading time: 5 minutes
Stablecoin payment flows could reach US$56 trillion by 2030
Stablecoin payment flows could reach US$56.6 trillion by 2030, according to projections from Bloomberg Intelligence. In 2025, these flows totaled approximately US$2.9 trillion, implying an annual growth rate close to 80% if the scenario materializes.
The projection is driven by two main factors: growing institutional adoption and the intensive use of stablecoins in economies facing high inflation or macroeconomic instability. Data indicates that USDT remains dominant in everyday payments and centralized platforms, while USDC concentrates a larger share of volume in DeFi applications, reflecting distinct specializations within the same market.
Despite the strong growth outlook, Bloomberg notes that activity remains heavily concentrated in dollar-denominated stablecoins, reinforcing the role of the US dollar as the foundation of global digital settlement.
Why this matters:
✅ Stablecoins are increasingly designed as global payment infrastructure
✅ Future scale requires interoperability, compliance, and robust liquidity
✅ Dollar dominance remains central even on digital rails
Crypto enters a “second round” of institutional adoption
According to a Binance Research report, the crypto market is moving into a new phase of institutional adoption, less dependent on retail flows and more driven by long-term strategic allocation.
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, traditional financial institutions began to deepen their involvement. The report cites recent filings by Morgan Stanley for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs as evidence that large banks are starting to act not only as distributors, but also as originators of crypto products.
The macro backdrop reinforces this trend. The extreme concentration of returns in large technology companies throughout 2025 reignited discussions around portfolio diversification, opening space for digital assets to gain incremental weight in institutional strategies.
Why this matters:
✅ Institutional adoption shifts from tactical exposure to strategic positioning
✅ Banks move from distribution to origination of crypto products
✅ The market gradually moves away from purely retail-driven dynamics
US Senate proposal targets passive yield on stablecoins
A new draft of the US Senate’s crypto market structure bill proposes banning interest or yield paid solely for holding payment stablecoins. The measure reflects pressure from the banking sector, which argues that yield-bearing stablecoins could incentivize deposit flight.
The proposal connects to debates sparked by the GENIUS Act, which already limited the direct payment of interest by issuers. Banks argue that indirect rewards offered by crypto platforms circumvent the spirit of the legislation and could put significant volumes of traditional deposits at risk.
Critics, however, suggest that the debate is less about financial stability and more about competition over who captures the yield generated by Treasury-backed reserves.
Why this matters:
✅ The economic design of stablecoins moves to the center of political debate
✅ Banks seek to protect traditional deposits and margins
✅ Stablecoin yield becomes a sensitive regulatory issue
CLARITY Act preserves use-based incentives
As a counterpoint to banning passive yield, an updated draft of the CLARITY Act clarifies that rewards tied to the use of stablecoins remain permitted. The text allows incentives linked to payments, transfers, remittances, settlement, loyalty programs, and participation in blockchain ecosystems.
The distinction aims to prevent stablecoins from being treated as bank deposits or investment products, while preserving operational models common to fintechs and payment networks. Even so, the issue remains contested, with legislative delays and ongoing pressure from both banking groups and crypto industry associations.
The outcome is expected to define how far stablecoins can functionally compete with traditional financial products without crossing regulatory boundaries.
Why this matters:
✅ Regulators attempt to separate financial yield from operational incentives
✅ Payment and loyalty models remain viable
✅ The boundary between banks and crypto infrastructure remains under negotiation
Vitalik Buterin questions dollar dependence
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin raised concerns about the ecosystem’s heavy dependence on the US dollar. According to him, near-exclusive indexing to a single currency exposes the system to inflation risk, institutional capture, and political interference over the long term.
Buterin highlighted structural weaknesses in current models, such as reliance on concentrated oracles and distorted incentives driven by staking yields. While acknowledging the short-term practical utility of dollar-denominated stablecoins, he questions their suitability as a foundation for long-term financial resilience.
The market itself reinforces the tension between practical efficiency and decentralization goals: initiatives in other currencies are growing, but the dollar remains dominant.
Why this matters:
✅ Dollar hegemony persists even in crypto-native environments
✅ Debate intensifies around resilience and institutional capture
✅ Stablecoins face structural limits over the long term
Taken together, this week’s developments reveal a market advancing rapidly in scale and institutionalization, while beginning to encounter more sophisticated friction around economic design, governance, and systemic dependence.
As stablecoins consolidate as critical infrastructure, they are increasingly regulated, contested, and scrutinized. The debate moves beyond growth alone and shifts toward how this infrastructure will be sustained over time.
See you in the next edition.
